Comment on Powell / A (conspiracy) theory

Not so ordinary day today. Still, of course there was the normal commuting etc, but my efforts to be productive were for once succesfull - what a great feeling. So, I managed to write something at work! In the evening, Petri G and Tuula V paid a visit. We had some antipasti and risotto, and lively discussion to go with. Not a bad way to spend evening at all. Nowadays, one meets friends too seldom.

Comment on Powell

Check this story about Powell in Guardian. Here is a short quote:

A system of bureaucratic fear and one-party allegiance is being created in this strange soviet Washington. Only loyalists are rewarded. Rice stands as the model. One can never be too loyal. And the loyalists compete to outdo each other. Dissonant information is seen as motivated to injure the president, disloyalty bordering on treason. Success is defined as support for the political line; failure perceived as departure from the line. An atmosphere of personal vendetta and an incentive system for suppressing realities prevails. This is not an administration; it does not administer - it is a regime.

It is really a worrying development. I will follow it and try to come up with some original analysis. Stay tuned!

A (conspiracy) theory

The facts are these. USA uses more oil than it produces. China uses more oil it produces. Russia uses less oil than it produces. USA uses more money it produces. China uses less money than it produces. China lends the rest of money to USA. Now, the theory goes as follows. USA must secure its dominance on Middle-East oil, but not to secure enough oil for itself - the Middle-East countries would sell enough oil to USA anyway (this far I have copied this from one article in Le Monde Diplomatiqu published before the current war in Iraq). The real reason for USA to secure domination of Middle-East oil is to have something with which to prevent China from using its financial dominance to blackmail USA. This is the only and true reason for the current war. The only problem is that Russia might start selling some of its oil to China, but as we know Russia has decided to build the oil pipe via its own territory to the Pacific, not via China (which would have been shorter way). This would also, maybe, explain why C. Rice is more suitable state secretary than Powell was. She is an expert in Russian affairs.

If my theory is true, then the role of Europe in this new Great Game is bit fuzzy at the moment. I think that some clever, peacefull but strong diplomacy would be necessary. There must be some space for negotiation in this great geopolitical game. Anyway, by developing alternative source of energy and more efficient ways of using energy Europe could secure an advantage after this great game. The oil will run out someday...

Another thing is, that at least I see the current US and Chinese administrations getting closer to each other all the time. The values their actions express are so close to each other. I would not be at all surprised if their relations would get significantly warmer in the near future (despite the facade of the routine arguing about "human rights" and Taiwan, which are just smoke screen).

But this all is just another (conspiracy) theory...

Alun perin julkaistu kuukausikoosteessa "Blogs November 2004".